What We Know
1. This house is built on stone.
Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, and Yadier Molina will all be back in 2010. This quartet represents the backbone of the St. Louis Cardinals, and provides the Strong core required in order to build a winner. Carpenter and Wainwright combined for more wins and a lower ERA than any other 1-2 starter combination in the major leagues. Albert Pujols is the best player in all of baseball, perhaps the greatest player of all time, and Yadier Molina is the glue that keeps this group together with his excellent defense, clutch hitting, and pure toughness. As long as these four players wear the Birds on the Bat, the Cardinals will have a good chance.
2. Those kids can play.
While Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols and Molina provide critical veteran leadership, the Cardinals boast an excellent mix of fine young talent that is beginning to make its mark on the team. Brendan Ryan, Skip Schumacker, and Colby Rasmus were key contributors in the Cardinal's NL Central championship. For Schumacker, it was his second season as an everyday contributor, after switching from the outfield to second base. His offense never skipped (no pun intended) a beat, and by the end of the year he was a better than average second baseman. Brendan Ryan finally showed us that he could achieve his potential. He went from a borderline bench player to the finest everyday defensive shortstop in the league while batting .292. Rasmus displayed glimpses of spectacular defense while also teasing us with some periods of scorching hotness at the plate. Altogether, his rookie season was a successful, if not spectacular one. His continued progression will be key to at least the next 5 years of Cardinal baseball.
3. No fluke.
Ryan Ludwick's breakout 2008 season was not an aberration. Despite being sidelined for a month with an injury, and then returning too soon to the playing field (according to Tony LaRussa) Ludwick still blasted 22 homers and drove in 97 runs. His production is not in question, and neither is his defense.
4. Still the best fans.
Despite the state of our economy and soaring unemployment, the Cardinals once again drew over 3 million fans to Busch Stadium. The support of the fanbase was credited by both the front office and Tony LaRussa for bringing in the talent we needed via midseason trades. St. Louis still does, and always will, bleed Cardinal red.
5. Mo Money.
The task of assembling the 2010 Cardinals falls to General Manager John Mozeliak, better known as "Mo." And he's got plenty of money to spend. The contracts of Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel, Khalil Greene and Todd Wellemeyer all come off the books, and all four were subpar or worse performers in 2009. Gone forever are the dead weight contracts of Adam Kennedy and Juan Encarnacion. Still, the task before Mozeliak is daunting. Joel Piniero, John Smoltz, Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa are all free agents. It is unlikely the Cardinals can bring all of them back, and that fact leads us into our next section:
What we don't know
1. Put me in, coach.
Most of the 2009 coaching staff, including Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, are at the end of their contracts. The front office has already announced that as long as Tony wants to manage, he is welcome in St. Louis. The question is, does Tony want to manage? LaRussa has his own methods by which he judges whether or not he wishes to return, and it will likely be a month or so before we know what his decision is. In Dave Duncan's case, it becomes a little more complicated. Duncan expressed a great deal of anger following the trade of his son Chris to the Red Sox this season. His ire was directed both at the front office for getting rid of the younger Duncan, as well as the fans and media for their poor treatment of the left fielder. The question of Dave Duncan's return as pitching coach may be the most important one of all. It was Duncan who turned Joel Piniero into a groundball machine. Duncan took journeyman Kyle Lohse and made him a viable number 2 or 3 starter. Duncan's successful list of projects includes names like Eckersley, Bottenfield, Weaver, and Kile. Dave Duncan is the heart and soul of Cardinal pitching, and if he doesn't want to come back, he leaves a gaping black hole in his wake.
2. The Cardinal's favorite Holliday.
Albert Pujols is the hitting machine that makes the St. Louis offense go. During the second half of 2009, Matt Holliday was the oil for that machine. The price the Cardinals payed for Holliday's services was high, as top prospects Brett Wallace, Christ Mortensen, and Shane Peterson were swapped to Oakland in return for the slugger. Now, the true test comes. Holliday will be the most wanted offensive weapon available this offseason, and his suitors will be many and deep-pocketed. The jury is still out on whether GM John Mozeliak did the right thing with this trade. If Holliday chooses to stay in St. Louis and signs a long term contract, Mo will be a hero and the Cardinals will have the best middle of the order in baseball. If Holliday signs elsewhere, Mo is the goat. Should the worst happen and Holliday leaves the Cardinals, there will be precious few options. Jason Bay, Vladimir Guerrero, and Carl Crawford round out the sub-Holliday tier of free agent outfielders.
3. Who's on third?
While Troy Glaus missed nearly the entire season with a serious of physical ailments the Cardinals were forced to mix and match at the hot corner until a midseason trade for Mark DeRosa. DeRosa promptly suffered a wrist injury that will require offseason surgery. Allow me to say this: That DeRosa played through the injury for the entire second half of the season speaks volumes about his grit and character. However, wrist surgeries are the boogieman to big league hitters. DeRosa has been vocal about his desire to stay in St. Louis, but should the Cardinals choose to sign him they will be taking a risk. Wrist surgery for hitters is like shoulder surgery for pitchers. My gut feeling is that DeRosa is worth the risk, however, other options exist as well. Prospect David Freese showed potential in a September cup of coffee with the team. With the departure of Brett Wallace, Freese becomes the number one option should the Cardinals choose to look inside the organization. The free agent market for thirdbasemen is a lean one, as only Joe Crede and Melvin Mora deserve more than a passing glance.
4. Bringing up the rear.
With Carpenter, Wainwright, and Kyle Lohse under contract for 2010, only 2 rotation spots remain open. Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero, and John Smoltz are all free agents, and Mitchell Boggs and Blake Hawksworth are the top prospects from within. It is highly unlikely that the Cardinals will choose to spend a large amount of money on their starting pitching this off season, considering the top three spots are taken, and the need to sign one or two big bats. Therefore, look for Todd Wellemeyer to walk, while the team tries to decide whether John Smoltz or Joel Piniero is a better fit. Signing both is likely out of the question monetarily. The final spot in the rotation will go to either Boggs or Hawksworth. I tend to think that John Smoltz will come cheaper and with less commitment than Piniero, who is coming off a career year. Smoltz provides yet another veteran presence, and will likely only sign a one or two year deal. This allows the Cardinals to progress their young starters into the big leagues with great mentors and an excellent time frame.
So that's what we know and what we don't know. I'll finish with some bold predictions:
Matt Holliday will sign with the Cardinals, and for a lot of money. As a result of Holliday's price tag, the Cardinals part ways with Ankiel, Wellemeyer, and Piniero. John Smoltz remains a Cardinal, and Blake Hawksworth wins the fifth and final spot in the starting rotation. Third base is a toss up. Hopefully DeRosa accepts a one year deal with incentives. If not, look for David Freese to take the reigns at third.
